Despite negative headlines and weak price action, a new report from Centrifuge and Keyrock presents a positive outlook for real-world assets and tokenized private credit. The report sets out bull, base, and bear cases, although tariff-driven economic repercussions could affect adoption. Bitcoin also fell to just under $80,000 amid the tariff-driven selloff, while Ledn’s John Glover identified potential support scenarios at $76,500 and $73,500 based on technical analysis.
The report’s bull case projects $17.5 billion in total value locked , driven by increased participation from traditional finance, including traditional loans stored on-chain, and stronger DeFi integration . Its base case projects $15 billion in TVL, reflecting continued adoption and slower but steady growth. The bear case projects $12 billion if weaker economic conditions reduce crypto sentiment and contribute to a bear market, increasing default risks and reducing loan demand.
Centrifuge CEO Bhaji Illuminati said she remains positive on RWAs and believes the market is at an inflection point. She pointed to regulatory clarity on the horizon and identified U.S. Treasury securities, including stablecoins, tokenized equities, commodities, and private credit as potential adoption growth areas. The report was written before the tariff risks emerged, but it said modest growth could still occur in a bearish environment.
Across tokenized assets, the report’s bull case projects RWAs reaching $50 billion, supported by regulatory tailwinds, greater composability from DeFi, and institutional demand to tokenize existing offerings. Its base case projects $30 billion, citing improvements in regulation and architecture. RWA.xyz data cited in the report puts total RWA on-chain value at $19.6 billion, compared with total stablecoin value of $227 billion, while the bear case still anticipates some growth.