Counterparty Risk
Counterparty risk is the risk that the other side of a transaction fails to perform — does not pay, does not deliver, or becomes insolvent between the moment you have performed and the moment they should. In payments it is the acquirer's exposure to a merchant that takes money for goods it will never ship, and the whole reason reserves, escrows and settlement rules exist.
- Also known as
- Counterparty credit risk, Settlement risk
- Used at
- merchant underwriting, settlement design, fund-flow structuring, the credit review of any partner that holds or owes money
- Binding
- managed by contract — reserves, collateral, netting and termination rights — and by regulation for banks and payment institutions
- Typical exposure
- for an acquirer, the value of card payments taken for goods or services not yet delivered, which for a travel merchant can be several months of sales
- Typical mitigant
- a rolling reserve of 5–20% of volume, a fixed reserve, delayed settlement, or a parent guarantee
- Parties
- any two firms with an unsettled obligation between them — acquirer and merchant, bank and correspondent, exchange and customer
How counterparty risk works in practice
The exposure is the gap between performance and payment. A card acquirer settles the merchant within days of a sale, but the cardholder can charge the payment back for months if the goods never arrive; if the merchant has failed by then, the acquirer pays the chargeback and cannot recover it. So the acquirer's exposure to a merchant is not the merchant's fees but its undelivered sales — for a retailer shipping in two days, a small number; for an airline, tour operator or events company selling months ahead, a very large one.
Underwriting therefore starts with the delivery gap. A merchant selling far in advance is asked for a rolling reserve — a percentage of every settlement held back for a period — or a fixed reserve, delayed settlement, or collateral from the parent. The same logic runs through fintech: a lender funding through a warehouse line has counterparty risk on the bank if the bank can pull the line; a crypto exchange's customers had it on the exchange, as FTX's did in 2022; a bank has it on every correspondent it pre-funds.
In a deal, counterparty risk is a diligence line. A buyer of an acquirer rebuilds the exposure by merchant and delivery gap and compares it with the reserves held; the difference is the risk the price has to carry.
Example
An acquirer's largest merchant is an airline with £40m of card sales a month and an average of 60 days between payment and flight: an exposure of about £80m at any time. The acquirer holds a 10% rolling reserve on 90-day terms — £12m — and a £15m parent guarantee. If the airline fails, chargebacks on unflown tickets could reach £80m against £27m of cover: a £53m loss. When Thomas Cook collapsed in 2019, its acquirers faced exactly this arithmetic. A prospective buyer of the acquirer prices the gap, asks for the reserve to be raised to 25% before signing, and takes an indemnity for the merchant's failure within a year of completion.
Common mistakes
- Measuring exposure by the merchant's fees rather than by its undelivered sales. - A reserve sized to the merchant's size, not to its delivery gap. - Netting exposures with a counterparty without a contract that makes the netting enforceable in its insolvency. - Treating a regulated counterparty as riskless; regulation limits failure, it does not prevent it. - Buying a payments business without rebuilding the exposure table, and inheriting the airline.